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commun.2[w83,jmc]	The two communist menaces

	It is important to distinguish the menace of Soviet communism
and the menace of communism in the Third World.

	1. The former is old and stodgy but has nuclear weapons and
enormous conventional armaments.  Its menace to the U.S. is primarily
that of nuclear war.  In view of its conservatism, such a war would
be extremely unlikely, except for its role as an ally of Third World
communism.  Even so, a nuclear war is unlikely.  The danger of nuclear
war is likely to persist for a very long time - until something happens
to Soviet communism.  Each change of rulers in the Soviet Union involves
a finite probability of nuclear civil war and a finite probability
that a Napoleon, Stalin or Hitler will replace the usual bureaucrats.
Such a change is essentially unpredictable no matter how good our
intelligence may be.

	2. Third world and democratic world communism arises quite
independently of the Soviet Union.  Indeed it might have more
adherents if it weren't for the bad reputation the Soviet Union
has given communism.  However, it is much more likely than Soviet
communism to killing large numbers of people.  Thus it wasn't the
Soviet Union that instigated the genocide in Cambodia, and the
Soviet Union isn't the main cause of the re-education camps in
Vietnam.  The communists and many liberals claim that communism
arises because of oppression and exploitation in the Third World
and the bad features of capitalism.  Certainly these phenomena
are a help to Third World communists, but when they get power
they usually make matters worse in these respects without losing
their activists.  Therefore, we must regard communism as a
vehicle for certain groups to get and hold power.  As long as it
remains a plausible road to power in these countries it will
be repeatedly arise again and again among young intellectuals.
The damage it does can perhaps be mitigated by more intense
counter-propaganda than has been used.
Resisting its military efforts is also important.  Economic development
per se has some effect in reducing its attractiveness, but the
prevalence of extreme leftism in West Berlin, next door to the
oppression and relative poverty of East Germany shows that
mere ability to observe isn't sufficient to overcome the
attractiveness of communism as a road to power.

	It should be noted that when the young revolutionaries
get power, they turn into bureaucrats very quickly.  At first
there is a premium on raw brutality and we see the genocidal
phase of communism.  Later it becomes more stodgy and conservatively
oppressive.  It took China until the death of Mao to pass from
the genocidal phase to the stodgy phase.  Cuba will perhaps make
the transition with the death of Castro.  Nicaragua is enjoying
an attenuated form of the genocidal stage.